Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 231.769378 283.037144 346.960345 434.026824 551.952272 7.098393e+02 9.439342e+02
2025-06-22 171.912197 229.613217 311.054490 439.310890 646.280342 9.877034e+02 1.645727e+03
2025-06-29 141.835126 201.514943 293.496609 455.050561 755.203721 1.349589e+03 2.831589e+03
2025-07-06 118.804797 176.274673 270.616122 450.401770 823.717518 1.686848e+03 4.432397e+03
2025-07-13 109.597248 169.903937 275.546877 495.223501 1012.108673 2.453153e+03 8.849152e+03
2025-07-20 101.508571 163.299847 277.756598 534.998726 1215.542737 3.509833e+03 1.862693e+04
2025-07-27 93.832113 155.703814 275.879944 565.052320 1417.236292 4.889252e+03 4.160862e+04
2025-08-03 86.438355 147.176931 269.960736 583.383509 1601.638367 6.594060e+03 1.003948e+05
2025-08-10 79.231517 137.757502 260.014427 587.982911 1748.263294 8.521062e+03 2.646654e+05
2025-08-17 71.963194 127.109912 245.220138 574.509812 1821.765940 1.027647e+04 7.233019e+05
2025-08-24 65.566336 117.369542 230.708253 557.426143 1872.515926 1.214196e+04 2.537338e+06
2025-08-31 60.009657 108.678968 217.165711 539.303161 1909.652668 1.417296e+04 1.565445e+07
2025-09-07 58.941006 109.554041 227.222781 601.322563 2418.196076 2.576240e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 55.270874 104.291099 221.100515 607.993207 2649.883370 3.659479e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 52.696256 101.127453 219.797126 631.861504 3034.384207 5.963554e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 49.243174 95.532078 211.018117 624.689302 3206.028651 8.276716e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 48.646082 96.481849 220.333566 693.847681 4123.086456 2.192407e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 47.681928 96.421493 226.835288 755.974068 5183.196466 7.131281e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 46.292889 95.138306 229.507590 803.366575 6281.259580 3.094373e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 44.543745 92.739821 228.331463 832.458702 7299.462265 2.290992e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 42.474255 89.293963 223.257284 839.779736 8071.486510 6.492083e+08 NaN
2025-11-09 40.027219 84.631318 213.534828 818.358566 8323.692157 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 37.686876 80.042710 203.418967 791.304542 8428.530102 NaN NaN